It has been a great pleasure to help develop and interpret the Aotearoa Futures Barometer and to consider the next steps we might take to develop a thriving country. We have the opportunity to explore what is possible. It is our hope that this Barometer seeds further conversations and adds to the conversation about the Aotearoa New Zealand that we want. What is our ambition?
Origins of the Barometer
The Aotearoa Futures Barometer, inspired by the Copenhagen Futures Barometer, has been adapted to suit New Zealand’s context. It serves as a platform to continue conversations about New Zealand identity and optimism. I am thankful to Tokona te Raki for trusting me as a partner in this work.
While there are often negative narratives about people leaving the country, this barometer provides an opportunity to focus on positive aspects that can be transformed into action. It encourages New Zealanders to consider the future they want and how to achieve it collectively.
The Aotearoa Futures Barometer highlights that New Zealanders have concerns about aspects of the future where they feel they lack agency, with educational and non-profit sectors being the most trusted for guidance on decision-making.
“Aotearoa New Zealand – no place I’d rather be” emerged as a common sentiment in the barometer.
While respondents acknowledged other potential places to live, many recognised the positive aspects of New Zealand that can be celebrated and further developed.
Underpinning this is confirmation that New Zealanders see the Treaty of Waitangi as important to our future – Almost 60 percent of those who completed the survey believe the Treaty of Waitangi is important to our future.
Trust in our Society
Trust levels have declined globally, including in Aotearoa New Zealand. The barometer survey results indicate that religious and government bodies face the highest levels of distrust among New Zealanders. The divisive nature of information is identified as a significant concern, with politicians and media seen as having the most impact on this division.
There is recognition of the need to actively work towards controlling misinformation and disinformation by fostering conversations that unite rather than divide. The survey suggests that encouraging respectful dialogue and holding public figures accountable for their statements are necessary actions to reduce division and conflict in New Zealand.
Different Worldviews and Perspectives
The Polak map in the barometer illustrates different attitudes towards optimism and perceived influence. It reveals that Auckland residents, those with tertiary degrees, and employed individuals tend to be more positive than others. The map highlights the existence of different worldviews and the importance of avoiding echo chambers in thinking. For collective growth and future development, it is crucial to explore others’ worldviews and understand their perspectives.
New Zealand’s diversity means that collaborative future design is essential for developing intergenerational ambition. We have many worldviews and there is no ‘one size fits all’ approach that will lead to all thriving. It’s complex.
Concerns and Opportunities
New Zealanders identified opportunities that were predominantly personal in nature, while expressing growing concerns about broader threats such as global unrest, climate change, and artificial intelligence—issues perceived as being less within their control.
Concerns varied across different demographic groups, though the economy and healthcare were common worries. The healthcare system was overwhelmingly identified as a key area needing improvement in the next 20 years. There was also a strong feeling that more support is needed for future generations to thrive.
Building Social Cohesion and National Identity
The high levels of distrust align with global findings from the Eidelman Trust barometer and research from the Helen Clark Foundation on diminishing social cohesion, which makes it difficult for New Zealand to thrive. More research is needed in this area, along with mature national conversations about New Zealand’s identity and collective ambitions. This requires inclusive dialogue that captures all voices, not just those who are currently privileged.
Public figures and politicians need to engage in respectful dialogue, particularly in the face of polarising political rhetoric that severs relationships and increases distrust. Rather than being shaped by leadership models of global divisiveness Aotearoa has the opportunity to create a socially cohesive country where we have a national ambition that has resulted from a national conversation.
It would be interesting to conduct the Aotearoa Futures Barometer again to see if these concerns and opportunities have changed or been amplified since the original study.
Let’s begin to look beyond today’s needs and anticipate a world where we all thrive in a truly intergenerational, equitable and just society. We see the Futures Barometer as an opportunity to start the conversations that will help us to dream of what could be.
Aotearoa futures barometer
Cover Image by Mudassar Iqbal from Pixabay