I am always interested in exploring new futures ideas and resources. This involves digging deeper into the history of a new idea or tool, exploring the people who developed the idea and then trying it in action. In this case I explored the Possibility Wheel, a strategic thinking tool based on a new book The Possibility Wheel: Making better choices in a fractured world by Patricia Lustig and Gill Ringland.
The Possibility Wheel as a Strategic Tool
The Possibility Wheel helps groups explore issues more deeply by examining underlying assumptions, which I think is one of the most important parts of futuring. The tool encourages users to identify the key question, surrounding assumptions, and theories of action, thus encouraging a more comprehensive analysis of an issue. It’s value lies in its ability to help people move beyond initial assumptions and consider unintended consequences, ultimately leading to more thoughtful decision-making. I tested this approach with school leaders, using the topical issue of school lunches in New Zealand as an example.
Disclaimer: It’s not about school lunches…
School Lunches in New Zealand: A Case Study
I used school lunches as a practical example for demonstrating the Possibility Wheel as it was an easily relatable, relevant and a current topic for their context. As background for those not in New Zealand, our country previously had a community-based school lunch programme where local providers created tailored meals for schools, supporting both students and local employment. When a new government took office, they prioritised cost-cutting, implementing a standardised national approach with a fixed $3 per student budget and fewer national providers. This change resulted in variable quality, with issues including culturally inappropriate food, temperature problems, and delivery inconsistencies. The case illustrates how rapid policy changes implemented without thorough consideration can create unexpected challenges.
After defining the question we explored the assumptions that underpinned the decisions made. You can see these scattered around the outside of the circles. These were the commonly heard phrases from politicians, in particular.
Unintended Consequences Revealed Through Deeper Analysis
Using the Possibility Wheel revealed several unintended consequences of the school lunch policy change. Environmental concerns emerged regarding single-use packaging waste. The new model inadvertently created additional work for school staff, diverting them from their core educational responsibilities at a time when schools were facing pressure to improve literacy, numeracy, and attendance. It also resulted in ongoing media attention which kept all parties away from critical issues.
The four forces of change we dug more deeply into were mobility, economic activity, populations and planetary limits. Effects for each of are shown in purple. The outside circle was used to identify some possible answers to our question.
The true cost of a lunch delivery programs needs to consider the cost of food, waste disposal, sustainability, school administration costs and time away from meeting learning needs of diverse students. This is the real cost that is beyond simple economic metrics. Some other considerations could have been:
- schools opting in or out within specified criteria
- a review timetable developed with the sector
- wider metrics of success developed and monitored with transparency
Benefits of Slowing Down the Decision-Making Process
The exercise highlighted the value of slowing down decision-making to allow for deeper thinking. While the Possibility Wheel is described as “quite a complex model,” I found it valuable although I only used it at a very rudimentary level!
By taking time to examine assumptions and consider alternative perspectives, decision-makers can avoid recreating past issues. The tool encourages a more thoughtful approach that looks beyond immediate concerns (like budget constraints alone) to consider wider impacts on communities, environments, and organisational resources. This deliberate approach contrasts with the rapid implementation that often characterises government and business decisions.
Application to School Leadership and AI
While school lunches served as the example, the actual purpose of the session was to help school leaders explore the use of artificial intelligence in their schools. After practising with the familiar school lunch scenario, participants applied the Possibility Wheel to consider AI implementation in education over the next five years. Each school considered this from their own context, identifying the forces of change most relevant to their setting.
Starting with a familiar topic helped participants understand the methodology before applying it to a more complex, future-oriented challenge.
The exercise demonstrated how the tool can be used to explore emerging technologies and their potential impacts on educational settings.The session concluded with participants identifying one immediate action they would take regarding AI in their schools. The insights gained were able to lead to concrete changes. We recognised that there were constraints, such as economic realities, that needed to be factored in. However new ideas can be enabled within these constraints.
Summary
If we all take time to challenge our assumptions and then use the key ideas to explore possibilities we might create something that considers multiple perspectives and has long term impact. Politicians and leaders across the world take note.
It is easy to take action as if a problem is linear rather than understanding the complex nature of change. It’s captivating to make a decision based on today’s thinking when decisions need to be made quickly. The danger is that you create more problems than you solve, taking more time in the long run.
I’ll continue exploring the Possibility Wheel as a facilitation tool, having seen its effectiveness in generating new perspectives and actionable insights. Thanks Patricia Lustig and Gill Ringland for sharing this with us.