Each month I host an informal gathering of people who want to grow their futures muscles! It is a way of meeting others interested in exploring ideas, and being curious. I liken this to the idea of ‘future flossing’, where people intentionally dig into the dark corners of the brain to seek out plaque that might be building up or is cementing ideas in place. ‘What if Wednesdays’ challenge us to remain open, to explore weak signals and to connect dots.
Our first What if Wednesday explored the weak signals around us. Ten of us gathered over breakfast to engage in rich, collaborative conversations.
What is a weak signal?
Weak signals are small symptoms of change that can easily go unnoticed. They may seem weird, stupid, outrageous or unbelievable. They’re the counterintuitive ideas, the odd news stories, the things that make you pause and think “that’s strange” before moving on with your day. I look at them as breadcrumbs of possibility.
At our ‘What if Wednesday’ gathering we used the excellent framing developed by Sitra to consider the following four focuses.
- Somewhere else: What has happened somewhere else that is hard to imagine here?
- Something that a lot of people do not know yet: What is at the forefront of development or is still bubbling under the surface?
- Something strange: What is confusing, surprising or makes you laugh?
- Something that is difficult to talk about: What is forbidden or difficult to take up? What is taboo or stirs strong emotions?
Cascades
The conversation kept circling back to this idea: we’re really good at measuring the first-order effects of our decisions, but we’re terrible at tracking what happens three, five, ten years down the line. And by the time those cascading effects become visible, they’re often too big to easily fix. That small hole in the road that doesn’t get repaired becomes, ten years later, a hole so big it’s almost impossible to fix. Except we’re talking about social infrastructure, economic systems, and people’s lives. That makes the recognition of weak signals critical for connecting ideas and considering the impact that colliding, combining and cascading might bring.
Where to look for weak signals
When technology becomes the end rather than the means, that’s when it’s not right,” was one of the comments I remember from our What if Wednesday. This applies to finding weak signals too. The method matters less than the mindset.
Our group suggested several approaches:
- Embrace the weird: Black Mirror episodes, science fiction, things that make you uncomfortable.
- Look for pendulum swings: Where are unexpected changes catching your attention?
- Notice what’s taboo: The thoughts you shut down because they’re “not appropriate” often point to emerging tensions.
- Follow the counterintuitive: Things that challenge your assumptions are more valuable than things that confirm them.
- Check your algorithms: Social media feeds you more of what you already believe. Actively seek sources that don’t.
A snippet of signals
New Legs: Toyota’s “Walk Me” is a four-legged mobility device that provides an alternative to wheelchairs. It can climb stairs, navigate uneven terrain, and adapt to the user. The moment you see it, you think: “Of course. Why did we assume wheels were the only solution?” A bit like the ‘aha moment’ when someone thought to attach wheels to suitcases! Will this reduce the need to adjust infrastructure? Give more freedom? Add to movement complexity? This prototype will be interesting to track.
Silver Splitting Women in their 50s are increasingly choosing to leave marriages and remain single—not looking for new partners, just opting out of the traditional relationship structure entirely. There are other signals that suggest a growing disconnect between men and women such as dating app fatigue, the reaction against misognistic power and a desire for personal freedom.
Human Blur: AI agents now have personalised names like “Alfie.” Most popular names for robots include Rosie WALL-E, Max and Eve. More cats and dogs are called Stephen or Andrew instead of Spot or Tiggy. We’re extending human naming conventions to non-humans in ways that signal shifting relationships with technology and animals. Is the blur increasing connection or making us less human? Connect this with the increase in doggy day care, pet insurance, and fur babies. Could this be a new industry for our home robots?
Wild West Warping (WWW) New frontiers are emerging. Personal AI assistants such as OpenClaw are evolving into artificial intelligences that communicate without human interference. A new social media site called Moltbook makes for simultaneously fascinating and unsettling possibilities. What does lawlessness look like? Will a human sheriff save the day?
Not Dead, Not Alive The Chinese developed app “Are You Dead” is taking the world by storm. People living alone simply tap it once daily to signal they’re okay. Beyond its practical function, this signals a society grappling with epidemic-level loneliness across age groups, from isolated elderly to disconnected youth. An example of a technological band-aid for the increasing number of people living alone and dying unnoticed. The loneliness epidemic in practice.
Weights from the past. Loneliness connects to another signal from the discussion: young people’s crisis of confidence. A recent Outward Bound report included our young people describing social media as “a burden they inherited rather than a tool they cherish.” These young people feel defeated, disengaged, and disconnected. They are bombarded with global problems they feel powerless to address. The craving for human connection is real.
Resurgence of Board Games: We discussed the resurgence of board game cafes, with libraries and commercial spaces hosting game nights. Teachers are reintroducing board games in intermediate classrooms and seeing dramatic improvements in collaboration and classroom environment. Is this another pushback against digital isolation? Possibly.
Hopeful Action We talked about a possible way to change the conversation from isolationism, to a recognition that meaningful change starts with the people you can actually influence. That reminded me of Jane Goodall’s last message to us all. I suggest you watch this as a glimmer of hope and a reminder that our actions do matter. We can create hope together.
The Futuring Habit
Futures and foresight is an ongoing practice. Major impact is more likely when we bring futures fluency into our personal worldviews and assumptions.
The idea of futures flossing is one of maintaining intentional regular habits that challenge us to connect. While this may seem like an individual pursuit imagine if we flossed together, creating a new level of friction! The deepest futuring is collaborative and relational. I still believe in the power of being uniquely human.
As we wrapped up our weak signals conversation, someone mentioned they’d been thinking about things that pop into their brain but get immediately shut down as “not something I can think about.” Those uncomfortable thoughts, the taboo topics, the ideas that seem too strange—those are often where the most important weak signals hide.
Our next What if Wednesday will dig deeper into a couple of signals using the question cards I have developed to challenge us to the next level. Ōtautahi Futures in action.