In my last post I shared my emerging model for unbounded futures and how past, present and future are interwoven. There is so much we learn from the past and this in turn shapes our world view, which in turn shapes our actions. The conversations are particularly polarising at the moment and I find myself digging deep into my futures toolkit to keep me grounded and curious. It reinforces that developing a futures mindset is a critical counterbalance for coping in an uncertain world. That is why one of my key starting slides shares the importance of our worldviews shaping the future.
It will therefore come as no surprise that Roman Krznaric’s new book, History for Tomorrow: Inspiration from the Past for the Future of Humanity is my latest reading material. I have only just started digging into the detail but I want to share a small extract from the chapter Breaking the Fossil Fuel Addiction. Kryznaric makes comparisons to the conversations that occurred during the abolition of slavery. I am particularly interested in the language used for defending worldviews and the impact that has on the future. It coincides with the recent move in Aotearoa New Zealand to remove the ban on new oil and gas exploration. I will reflect on this following this excerpt from Kryznaric, highlighting added by me.
The struggle to abolish carbon emissions has suffered from the intransigence and snail-paced gradualism of vested business interests and of the governments beholden to them….the time for gradualism is over.
Roman kryznaric
The NZ Debate
The Crown Minerals Amendment Bill is part of New Zealand First’s coalition agreement with the National Party. It passed its first reading on Wednesday afternoon with support from National, ACT and New Zealand First; with Labour, the Greens and Te Paati Māori opposed.
An article titled Reversal of Taranaki oil and gas ban passes first reading appeared on Radio New Zealand, 26 September 2024 written by political reporter Anneke Smith. The bill reversed the former Labour government’s ban on new oil and gas exploration. The article quotes Resources Minister Shane Jones’ arguments for the importance of this reversal. What first caught my attention was the Minister’s statement: “New Zealand must look after itself before it cares for the planet.”
The justification: “Natural gas is critical. It will have a place until at least 2050. Increases in emissions from gas supply is vastly preferable to our reliance on coal but the reality is, we need all of the options if we are to deliver affordable, secure energy.”
I am interested in the language used and what worldview this represents. The first slide on this page makes it clear why worldviews matter. I have used a futures theory and method called Causal Layered Analysis to briefly review what sits below the surface of the conversation shared in the article. The CLA process was developed by Sohail Inayatullah and is globally recognised as an important way of opening conversations, exploring different ways of knowing and developing alternative metaphors. What is it that drives the thinking of the current government coalition and how does that play out? The examples below come from the article.
The Headline
We inherited a ‘dire situation’ – a ‘hermit kingdom’
The System
The system that continually brings us to this place is: A three year election cycle can lead to reversal of the previous government’s legislation The blame game of fixing the mistakes of the last party Lack of a country wide vision that moves us to bipartisan agreements around critical issues especially in relation to climate Parliamentary name calling “”insane’, “rapid denial”
We must deal with today’s needs Pressure from key industries influences decision making When we have an issue a solution is developed without considering future generations Traditional economic models and productivity are narrow and reward status quo
Worldview
The article highlights the government worldviews as:
We’re running out of gas – demand outstrips demand New exploration will give us energy security Thinsg will be more certain Jobs will be created, higher incomes Attract investment Energy needs to be affordable Get back on the productivity cycle It will help us transition to a low carbon future
Metaphor
You know the drill: Productivity before planet (my example)
Final Quotes from the RNZ Article
“We remain dedicated to an energy transition but not at the point of hollowing out jobs and de-industrialisation. That type of fuzzy communist thinking has no place on this side of the house.” – Shane Jones
What about the rights of future generations to a liveable planet? – Green Party’s resources spokesperson Steve Abel
So what?
Worldviews matter. Language influences actions. Our hope is in transformation.
In a recent futures workshop with a group of university students their current reality metaphors included:
Today at the cost of tomorrow
Keep calm and fill the pothole
100% polluted 0% pure
We talked about the importance of individual, organisational and system level change and the role we can all play in this. Kryznaric reinforces the role of citizens and provides thoughtful examples of how history has changed today. He also describes the ‘radical flank’ and the role it can play. He leaves us with these final words: “It is time to draw on history for tomorrow, and turn radical hope into action.”
There is no ‘one answer’ but the metaphors we use are important, driven by our worldviews and influencing upward to change systems and headlines. I am interested in your transformational metaphors and examples of language influencing legacy. I will leave the final words in support of future generations:
Acknowledging that we must learn from our past achievements and failures, and their consequences, in order to ensure a more sustainable, just and equitable world for present and future generations, and understanding the interconnectedness of past, present and future
2023 was a catalyst year for exploring intergenerational fairness in Aotearoa New Zealand. 2024 is a year to accelerate this focus and to work with others locally, nationally and globally who are committed to considering future generations in our decision making.
Are you awash with trends, blogs and articles about the future in 2024? My in box is full! And I hate it, especially when people create a list of forecasts as if they are predicting the future. Some of the lists come up with the obvious extension of here and now. Others express their points as siloed ideas and discrete ‘future’ chunks. Others come up with a funky name for something of little consequence. So I’m not going to do that.
We have been growing futures thinkers in Aotearoa and connecting people within the network. This extends from the Ōtautahi Futures Collective through Aotearoa Futures Network and into the Oceania Futures space. The more we connect and learn together the more we grow our futures muscles! It also provides the opportunity to celebrate successes across the network.
